Picking the BCS Bowls

Since I'm not a huge fan of Christmas, my favorite time of year may be the end of the college football season. And even though the game is played with a very poor postseason, it's still fun to see who goes to the big games. To give a refresher, here's the top 15 schools in the BCS according to last Sunday's rankings along with results this weekend if they played.

#1 Auburn -- Def. #19 South Carolina 56 - 17...ouch!...SEC Champion

#2 Oregon -- Def. Oregon State 37 - 20...Pac 10 Champion

#3 TCU

#4 Stanford

#5 Wisconsin...since they're the highest ranked team in the Big Ten (it's really the Big 11, but who's counting?), they're going to be the Big Ten champs.

#6 Ohio State

#7 Arkansas

#8 Michigan State

#9 Oklahoma -- Def. #13 Nebraska 23 - 20...Big 12 Champion

#10 LSU

#11 Boise State -- Def. Utah State 50 - 14...making up for previous shortcomings, eh?

#12 Missouri

#13 Nebraska -- Lost to #9 Oklahoma 20 - 23

#14 Oklahoma State

#15 Virginia Tech -- Def. #21 Florida State 44 - 33...ACC Champion (Go Hokies!)

...

(Unranked) Connecticut -- Def. South Florida 16-13...Big East Champion

My only comment here is that Nebraska is pretty much out of the BCS picture by losing in the Big 12 championship. Now let's look at the selection procedure according to bcsfootball.org. Otherwise, there isn't going to be a lot of leapfrogging going on.

1. The top two teams in the final BCS Standings will be placed in the National Championship Game ("NCG").

Result: NCG -- Auburn v. Oregon...this will be a great game to watch. Go SEC!!!

2. Unless they qualify to play in the NCG, the champions of selected conferences are contractually committed to host selected games:

Atlantic Coast Conference-Orange Bowl
Big Ten Conference-Rose Bowl
Big 12 Conference-Fiesta Bowl
Pac-10 Conference-Rose Bowl
Southeastern Conference-Sugar Bowl

Result: NCG -- Auburn v. Oregon
Sugar Bowl -- (Vacant spot by Auburn) v. ???
Orange Bowl -- Virginia Tech v. ???
Fiesta Bowl -- Oklahoma v. ???
Rose Bowl -- Wisconsin v. (Vacant spot by Oregon)

3. If a bowl loses a host team to the NCG, then such bowl shall select a replacement team from among the automatic-qualifying teams and the at-large teams before any other selections are made. If two bowls lose host teams to the NCG, each bowl will get a replacement pick before any other selections are made. In such case, the bowl losing the No. 1 team gets the first replacement pick, and the bowl losing the No. 2 team gets the second replacement pick. If the Rose Bowl loses both the Big Ten and Pac-10 champions to the NCG, it will receive two replacement picks.

For the games of January 2011 through 2014, the first year the Rose Bowl loses a team to the NCG and a team from the non-AQ group is an automatic qualifier, that non-AQ team will play in the Rose Bowl.

A bowl choosing a replacement team may not select any of the following:

A. A team in the NCG;
B. The host team for another BCS Bowl;
C. When two bowls lose host teams, then the bowl losing the number one team may not select a replacement team from the same conference as the number two team, unless the bowl losing the number two team consents.

Results: Since the Rose Bowl loses a team to the NCG, and TCU is an automatic qualifying team from a non-automatic qualifying conference, the Rose Bowl gets TCU. The Sugar Bowl gets a replacement pick, and they will probably pick Ohio State since they will travel well to New Orleans. To summarize:

NCG -- Auburn v. Oregon
Sugar Bowl -- Ohio State v. ???
Orange Bowl -- Virginia Tech v. ???
Fiesta Bowl -- Oklahoma v. ???
Rose Bowl -- Wisconsin v. TCU

4. After steps No. 1, 2 and 3 have been completed, any bowl with an unfilled slot shall select a team from the automatic qualifiers and/or at-large teams in the following order for the games played in 2007 through 2010:

January 2011 games: Sugar, Orange, Fiesta

Results: Sugar Bowl will choose a SEC team to keep the tradition, so they'll take Arkansas. Unfortunately, the rules have Stanford as an automatically qualifying team in the BCS. So does the Orange Bowl pick Stanford or UConn. Despite Stanford being located across the country from the Orange Bowl site, it'll undoubtedly sell more tickets than picking UConn. So the Orange Bowl (reluctantly) pick Stanford. This leaves Connecticut to the Fiesta Bowl. To summarize:

NCG -- Auburn v. Oregon
Sugar Bowl -- Ohio State v. Arkansas
Orange Bowl -- Virginia Tech v. Stanford
Fiesta Bowl -- Oklahoma v. Connecticut
Rose Bowl -- Wisconsin v. TCU

I hope that there'll be some surprises tonight, but I think this what will probably happen.

Enjoy!